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January 28, 2010 Live Forex Trading Course 10 Comments

Another example of how traders forget original analysis. After this sign of strength the market ‘messes’ with your head. It all does NOT seem to make sense for an up move. Its drifting down. (I have deliberately left of some markings on this chart and there is quite a bit going on.) The thing is had you have noted the sign of strength you would have been waiting for CLEAR action. The first sign that the cycle was starting to kick off came about 5.30 with that green alert. But  now we would want to see a test, the no desire move starts after it runs into the reds to the left. Ok……….so IF you are a no desire move where are you going to run to, AND what am I likely to see when you get there?

(Answer) I am likely to see an increase of volume on the DOWN on or about the turn. Remember High Volume Turns? I am then likely to see a PB to the upside thus confirming the playing out of the strength cycle that started circa 14.40 “yesterday’ Yes Yesterday, note I removed the day separator line so you can better see how the cycles NEVER really stop.

Have a great day..

PS Video tomorrow is about my favourite topic and something that you naggingly hate to do……..can you guess what it is  :-)

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Currently there are "10 comments" on this Article:

  1. Mark says:

    Hi Martin,

    I have a quick question about when top lane becomes bottom lane (and vice versa).

    Today (UK time) EUR/USD from around 8.00am onwards. We are in the top lane when the retrace starts and looking at the retrace possibly to the earlier congestion or the green signal at 7.20. We get a slight retrace then back up to the top lane and 8.00am bar. Now following this we have congestion build up in the bottom lane. Are we still looking for the original retrace or are we now looking for a break downwards from the new congestion?

    Thanks

    Mark

  2. Martin Cole says:

    Hi Mark
    Currently as I write this, this is what I see.
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    The test back into the top red alert was a great opportunity AND PAT worked all this out for you a long time ago, all you have to do is observe and act :-)

  3. Mark says:

    Where the entry point have been Martin?

    Thanks

    Mark

  4. Paul Downham says:

    Hi Martin,

    I saw the weakness here, saw the power bar out of congestion at 10.20am, sold on the retrace at 1.4010, exited for a +43.50 pip win.

    It was the classic lower lane FZ2, Top Lane FZ1, 1, 2, 3, retrace then sell.

    I did analyse the £ correctly but stuck to the EUR as this was clearer to me, although, the 10.30am power bar was VERY clear, especially tied in with the red resistance bars at 10.00am and later at 11.20am. Market then moved down some 130 odd pips!

    Paul

  5. Martin Cole says:

    Hi Paul
    What’s going on? :-) Your mails have changed, it not just the wins, I suspect the journey with the journal is paying off? Well done

  6. Martin Cole says:

    Hi Mark
    I would have been looking for the NO DESIRE up move to run out out steam. The marker was give to me by PAT. That was entry one. Entry two was when it broke from lower lane (ENTRY ONE) had confirmed this.

  7. Mark says:

    Hi Martin,

    I’m still struggling with an entry point here. The “no desire” does run out of steam at the marker given by PAT but how would we know this at the time? It comes of the red signal, do we then wait for a retrace back into this?

    Also on entry 2, would you trade the actual break WITHOUT a retrace to it because you have the confirmation of entry one?

    Thanks

    Mark

  8. Martin Cole says:

    Hi Mark
    I am recording a video of this but it will not be out until Friday 5th. However meanwhile…….. Lets look at the chart again
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    First you can never KNOW if a market will turn at a red or green BUT you do not need to know that, you simply observe. So you ‘could’ sell as you see the market drop away from this, but even if you dont you have PROOF that this is weakness developing (the cycle is being played out and you know where you are in that cycle) Then you get lower lane congestion and a JB, this is second chance for a sell (as you also saw PROOF earlier)
    Then you have a retrace after the break of the green, (retrace is not shown on this chart, look at your PAT charts to see this) and then a drop away (this was a no desire retrace move) There are three entries here and time to increase your position, believe me the signs dont get much better than this when they stack up one after the other.

  9. Mark says:

    Hi Martin,

    Thanks again for the reply. I can see all the signs of weakness and indeed could see them live as they happened today. My problem was (and still is) the actual entry points. I am firmly under the impression (maybe incorrectly) that we always buy/sell on a retrace to a particular bar. So I suppose my questions are should we be selling at:

    a) The 8.20 bar (without a retrace)

    b) The 10.10 or 10.20 bar (without a retrace). Also another question here is do you class the 10.10 bar as a jump/power bar or not? The belief bar is at the low end of congestion and obviously price breaks out or does the “belief bar” need to be away from the congestion?

    Thanks

    Mark

  10. Martin Cole says:

    Hi Mark
    You are very slightly ‘patterning’ again. “ACTUAL ENTRY POINTS”
    If you know there is weakness then why not go with that? Why not sell on the JB or why not wait for a 15 odd pips rise (anywhere) to then sell. There was a retrace at 9.00 then a 16 pip retrace from 9.20 which if you had, a line on from the bottom of the green at 23.50 on the 27th you would have been expecting. Note also how when this was broken and the market went down there was yet another lift back to TEST the underside of the green from 23.50 on the 27th. This came from a no desire up move. This was “shouting” sell…
    Dont worry you are learning and you will get there, indeed you are well on the way :-)

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